2018 NBA Draft Preview
By: Wyatt Krehbiel
This is the first of a series of articles on the 2018 NBA Draft. I plan on following this
article with several updates throughout the season and then scouting reports for players likely to interest the Knicks in the weeks leading up to the draft. The top end of this draft appears to very strong with five potential franchise cornerstones. After those five the rest of the draft is much harder to predict but has a lot of potential talent.
Although it’s too early in the year to know how everything will play out, the consensus
top pick in the draft appears to be Marvin Bagley III out of Duke. Bagley is a 6’11 front court player who has the potential to lead the league in rebounding while guarding multiple positions.
Bagley is a very athletic, high motor rebounder with plenty of shot blocking ability, as well as the speed and lateral quickness to guard smaller players on the perimeter. Bagley has shown flashes of a solid jump shot but needs to develop his offensive game to become a true star in the NBA. While New York appears to have an overabundance of players in the front court, if they somehow obtained the first overall pick it would be hard for the team to pass up on the best talent in the draft who could provide them with defensive flexibility alongside KP.
Luka Doncic is a 6’8 guard who seems to have the most developed set of skills in this
draft. Doncic lacks top flight athleticism, but his court vision, passing instincts, and ball skills allow him to be incredibly effective. Unlike the most of the prospects in this class, Doncic has performed well on a professional court. Doncic was a key player in leading his team to the Euroleague Final Four, and served as Goran Dragic’s sidekick in Slovenia’s gold medal run in Eurobasket. Doncic would be an ideal fit with this Knicks team by sliding in next to Frank Ntilikina providing another solid outside shooting threat, an exceptional secondary distributer, a high motor defender, and a high energy emotional leader on the court.
Michael Porter Jr. is 6’10 Forward out of Missouri who has the size to play the four but
the skills and athleticism to play the three. He has the ability to score from anywhere on the court with above average shooting from the outside. Experts have gone as far as to suggest that Porter has the upside of Kevin Durant. Porter needs to show scouts that he has the vision to be a consistent passer, and that he is willing to work on the defensive end but he looks to have the ability to slide into Melo’s old position, and provide the same scoring punch with higher upside.
The final two players in the preseason top five are Deandre Ayton from Arizona, and
Mohammed Bamba from Texas. Both players are centers which is not a position the Knicks are likely to be targeting. Ayton is the more talented offensively of the two and has a solid outside shot. If he develops his post moves he could fit the mold of Karl Anthony-Towns. Bamba will enter the league with the longest wingspan of any NBA player at 7’9, he is expected to develop into a potential defensive player of the year with similar rim protecting skills as Rudy Gobert.
Bamba has shown flashes of offensive ability but is not nearly as polished as Ayton.
The rest of the draft is hard to gauge at this point in the process. Other prospects of
interest include Miles Bridges who is an athletic freak who shoots threes and could potentially play small forward for the Knicks. Trevon Duval is a long, physical point guard who could potentially play with Frank Ntilikina. Lonnie Walker is a prototypical shooting guard who can shoot the three, attack off the dribble and has the wingspan to be a plus defender. Hamidou Diallo could be the most athletic two guard in the class but probably has the most riding on performance this year of any prospect. His athleticism is off the charts but he needs to show that he has the basketball skill to go with the athleticism.
|A 2-1 week that should have been a 3-0 week. If you told me the Knicks would be ahead of the Cavs in the standings 14 games into the season and LeBron was healthy I would have asked you to share whatever drug you were on. Oh and farewell to Kuz. We hardly knew ye.|
|Rank||Player||Comments||Last weeks Rank|
|1||Porzingis, Kristaps||Porzingis efficiency was down a good amount this week. I hope it doesn’t have to do with his elbow as that probably won’t get better any time soon. The good news is that even with lower efficiency KP still averaged 25 and 7.||1|
|2||Lee, Courtney||Lee had a great week, especially agains the Kings. He’s been an underrated part of the Knicks success.||7|
|3||Hardaway Jr., Tim||Hardaway had monster games against the Cavs and Jazz, which makes up for the turd he layed against the Kings. He’s showing some good signs like improved defense and passing. If he can get his consistency up he’ll be worth his contract.||3|
|4||Ntilikina, Frank||Not only did Frank have 6 steals against the Cavs, he stood up to LeBron. He’s going to be really good. Dennis Smith Jr. who?||4|
|5||Kanter, Enes||Kanter can score and he can rebound. What he can’t seem to do is defend and that was exposed against the Cavs and Jazz. Still, he’s an emotional presence. Standing up for Frank like he did in the Cavs game is important.||2|
|6||Jack, Jarrett||Jack averaged over 5 assists per game this week. I’ll take it.||9|
|7||McDermott, Doug||No one on the bench really stood out this week. Doug was the only one to have a positive +/- in all 3 games.||6|
|8||O’Quinn, Kyle||Quiet week from KOQ. Not terrible, but not as good as the last few weeks.||5|
|9||Thomas, Lance||I’m glad I didn’t bow down to the pressure and issue a Lance apology.||8|
|10||Dotson, Damyean||Dotson looked really good against the Kings and then played 1 minute over the next 2 games.||10|
|11||Beasley, Michael||Has the Beasley experiment come to an end already?||11|
|12||Noah, Joakim||Coach said he’s bringing back Noah slowly. Zero minutes over the first two games is an excellent pace if you ask me.||16|
|13||Hernangomez, Willy||Now that Noah is back I think the only way Willy is getting on the court is if he leaves hundreds of marbles in the locker room in the hopes of multiple sprained ankles.||13|
|14||Baker, Ron||Baker is out of the rotation. At least we’re paying him twice market value!||12|
|15||Sessions, Ramon||I remember really wanting Sessions on the team. That was about 7 years ago but still.||14|
Phil Jackson should still be with the Knicks
For all the damage Phil Jackson inflicted on the New York Knickerbockers, and all
the criticism he took during his time in the city, he may have actually saved the
This year we are witnessing Kristaps Porzingis live up to his multiple alter-egos, we
have seen flashes of both ‘Porzingod’ and the ‘Unicorn’. I’m not entirely sure what
either of those would look like, but I’m pretty sure KP is the closest thing you can get.
In fact, this season Porzingis has outperformed most of his talented 2015 rookie
class. So far in this season KP is producing 30 ppg, whilst also increasing his
efficiency across the board. Compared to the Latvian’s previous two years of 44.5
FG%/ 35 3FG% he has improved 6.2% from the field and 3% better from deep. The
numbers seem steady, until you explore the usage this year (35.7 USG%) which has
increased by more than 10% after Carmelo’s departure in the summer. Usually we
don’t see efficiency increases co-inside with a dramatic usage increase. Therefore,
seeing Porzingis’s development this year has surprised most. Also noteworthy is the
fourth quarter heroics, on three occasions now Kristaps has single handedly won
games (looking like 2009 Kobe). His new-found mamba mentality was on full show
during the Knicks’ recent game vs an in-form Indiana Pacers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsBT7kihaTE (Real GD’s Latest Highlights)
But we already knew Porzingis was going to be a scorer after his first few games in
the league, and with Carmelo Anthony as a mentor it seemed even more likely. What
is more encouraging for the Knicks faithfuls is the dynamic defensive ability KP can
produce, especially in the clutch. In the very same Pacers game KP rejected six
shots, four of which came in the second half, and all during the Knicks come back.
After the theatrics New York witnessed during KP’s first two years it was clear he
was a steal at the 4th pick back in 2015. Although that wasn’t commonly known in
June 2015, and while some saw athletic Dirk, most saw Darko. Even after some
impressive, well-edited highlight videos started to appear, many still were calling for
the Knicks to select Justice Winslow (a sure thing in many people’s opinion, even
mine). Then it happened; Phil Jackson rang-in the selection of a skinny 7’3″ European
and the rest just may well be history.
Fast forward two years, and things are really reaching a boiling point. Phil wants
Melo gone, Melo loves NY but hates Phil so agrees to make two teams available for
a trade (either of which he would join later in the year). Then it comes out Hornacrk
thinks KP plays ‘like a pussy’, so then Kristaps flies home before meeting with Phil
and Horneck. Or so it is rumoured.
Finally, the 2017 NBA draft, the one event that the Knicks excelled at, or at least
when they have had a 1 st round pick. And again, Phil Jackson along with his Knicks
staff select a long, skinny European, who like Porzingis had been playing
professional ball for a couple of years. Frank Ntilikina (the ‘t’ is silent) has gone
reasonably unnoticed among his peers, but that is by no means a reflection of his
potential. What’s most striking when watching Ntilikina is his defensive IQ, coupled
with a relentless motor. After 11 games, the 19-year- old has averaged 1.6 spg whilst
only playing 20 minutes, he’s also within the 100th percentile for his position on steals
per team possession (cleaningtheglass.com). In comparison to Dennis Smith Jr’s
defensive numbers 0.8 spg (1 spg per 36 minutes) Frank looks much more capable
‘The French Prince’ (Ntilikina’s favoured nickname) has also shown his ability to be
that floor general teams look for in an all-star point guard. Proving that his high
basketball IQ is not just a defensive one, he’s averaging 5 apg during is 20 minutes
of playing time. He’s also in the 73rd percentile in his position on what percentage of
his teammates’ buckets did he assist on (cleaningtheglass.com). At 19, his overall
game is impressive and throughout the year we are bound to see mistakes and
brilliance from the rookie. Once again it is difficult to criticise the pick.
So that’s one franchise player selected and a 6’5, 19-year- old point guard who after 11
games has shown he can defend really well and find his teammates. Plus let’s not
forget the trade Jackson made to acquire Willy Hernangomez (drafted and stashed
by the Philadelphia 76ers), another highly skilled European who was selected in the
NBA first all-rookie team just last year.
So, the question has to be asked, should Phil Jackson still be with the Knicks? Well
quite clearly no, but his time with the Knicks shouldn’t be remembered as a failure. In
fact, Jackson might have been one of the rare executives that leave a team in better
condition than when they started. Perhaps the Knicks could make the 11-time NBA
champion their head European scout? He could even live in Lithuania with
Kuzminskus once he gets cut to make room for Phil’s best friend, Joakim Noah.
Why Kristaps has a Westbrook like MVP Case
We all remember last year’s MVP narrative. Whether it was loyalty or history or clutch time performances and maybe most of all how he single handedly carried the Thunder last year. Well through eleven games Kristaps has close to single handedly carried the Knicks to a positive record. Much like last year when Westbrook averaged a career high in points and rebounds and matched his career high in assists, Kristaps is too.
You can attribute part of Kristap’s rise to Carmelo Anthony’s departure. Kristaps usage has jumped from 24.3 in 2016-17 to 35.7 this season. His PPG has risen to 30 from 18.1 last season. His rebounds have risen to 7.5 per game, and blocks per game to 2.3. But you can’t attribute all of his improvements to having the ball more. His FG% has improved drastically to 51% from 45% even though he’s experiencing tighter coverage than ever. His 3 point % is improved from 36% to 38%. Kristaps is ranked #5 in the last edition of the Kia MVP ladder and if he continues this superb season and the Knicks are still playing in late April, #1 isn’t that far away.
Changing Tides, KP, Frank, Playoffs?
Just over 2 weeks ago the Knicks were returning from Boston, reeling from a disappointing 21pt loss to the Celtics. KP looked flustered and the team looked sloppy in a game where the corpse of Ramon Sessions played 26 minutes – and Kyle O’Quinn played only 6.
Those were the dark days of the winless Knicks, 3 games into what appeared to be another long season filled with dreams of a top draft pick and little hope of competitive basketball.
Fast forward 2 weeks and there is a stark contrast in mood around the team, yet more
importantly there is a contrast on the court – ‘stark’ just doesn’t do it justice. In his 3 rd NBA season, Porzingis has blown all expectations out of the water, and his play has been bolstered by a functional and dynamic offense brought forth by coach Jeff Hornacek.
When they’re not turning the ball over, the Knicks have a half-court set that still contains triangle concepts, with lots of high-low action helped by a physical and offensively gifted frontcourt. However, unlike last season, the team no longer runs the triangle as a means to itself – that is to say that there is a clear goal for each possession – to give Porzingis the ball.
Last year as a Knick, Carmelo Anthony surpassed the 24,000 point mark becoming just the 25th NBA player to reach that milestone. He is a surefire Hall of Famer and one of the great scorers in NBA history. The accomplishment though, got me thinking about his tenure as a New York Knick. In his first three seasons in New York he led the Knicks to three brief playoff berths (one series win). After this modicum of success though, four straight seasons of missing the playoffs, one more disappointing than the next ensued. Last year specifically he had some decent talent around him. A burgeoning if at times enigmatic star in Kristaps Porzingis, a one dimensional, still athletic but flawed former MVP in Derrick Rose, and a mix of seemingly decent role players in Courtney Lee, Willy Hernangomez, and others. Nobody other than Rose himself would describe this as title contending talent, but to not even compete for the 8th seed in a perennially weak Eastern Conference? And its not like Melo, at age 33 couldnt play anymore. He was right at or around his career averages in just about all major statistical categories. But this is not to say I’m not a Carmelo Anthony fan. His deficiencies and weaknesses are well documented and often accurate, but again, he is still a first ballot Hall of Famer, like it or not. In fact, as puzzled as I was by another disastrous Knicks season, this milestone had me thinking less about Carmelo and more about a previous Knicks great, Patrick Ewing.
After coming into the league in 1985-86 and playing for bad teams in his first two seasons, he went on an incredible run of success. From 1987-88 through 2000-01 (his age 38 season) he made the playoffs 14 consecutive seasons, winning 17 playoff rounds, and reaching two NBA Finals. For a player to be the clear star of a team for that long with that consistency of success (despite not winning the ultimate prize) one or both of the following things would need to be true for him not to be considered an immortal player: His playoff runs must have been ended by poor teams, teams that his greatness alone should’ve been able to overcome, and/or he played with other great players, leaving him without excuse for playoff series losses, no matter his opponents. Lets delve into these questions a bit deeper.
The following is a list of the teams that ousted the Knicks from the playoffs during Ewing’s 14 year stretch:
1987-88 – The Larry Bird, McHale, Parish Celtics.
1988-89 – The young but still Michael Jordan/Scottie Pippen led Bulls
1989-90 – The Champion Bad Boy Pistons
1990-91 – Jordan and the Champion Bulls
1991-92 – Jordan and the Champion Bulls
1992-93 – Jordan and the Champion Bulls
1993-94 – Lost in Game 7 in the NBA Finals to the Rockets
1994-95 – Finger roll loss to the Pacers
1995-96 – Jordan and the Champion Bulls
1996-97 – Heat (more below)
1997-98 – Pacers
1998-99 – Lost (an old, breaking down Ewing was injured) in the Finals
to the Spurs.
1999-00 – Finals bound Pacers
2000-01 – Raptors
To review, they lost to the dynastic Jordan led Bulls fives times, four of which were during Bulls championship years. Nobody beat Jordan. That is well established. Ewing just joins a list of all time greats (Barkley, Malone, Stockton, Payton, and everyone else in the 90’s). In the year that Jordan decided to give baseball a try, the Knicks won the East and held a 3-2 lead in the Finals only to fall just short to Olajuwon and the Rockets in 7. In 96-97, the Knicks got some reinforcements and were a 57 win team gelling at just the right time. They swept their opening round series against the Hornets and were up 3-1 to a 61 win Heat team before PJ Brown body slammed Charlie Ward, most of the team including Ewing got suspended, and they lost in 7. The Bulls were up next. By the late 90’s, Ewing was no longer the best player on the team as he hit his late 30s but he still helped them to a second Finals appearance in 1998-99 but could not play in the Finals against the Tim Duncan/David Robinson led Spurs. In all, I don’t think the argument could be made that the Knicks lost to bad competition during Ewing’s playoff run. Maybe the one series where they underachieved was in 1994-95 where Game 7 against the Pacers ended on the infamous missed Ewing finger roll. It is worth noting though, that the Knicks were down 3-1 in that series and won Game 5 on a Ewing buzzer beater on the brink of elimination and then won game 6 handily in Indiana before losing the aforementioned Game 7.
Ok, so what about the talent surrounding Ewing during his illustrious but ultimately unfulfilling career? Lets have a closer look. To have that run of consistency and success, this guy must’ve been surrounded by stars and HOFers. The following are the awards/recognitions handed out to Ewing’s teammates from 1987-2001:
1987-88 Rookie of the Year – Mark Jackson.
1988-89 All Star – Mark Jackson
1993-94 All Star – John Starks
1993-94 All Star – Charles Oakley
1994-95 Sixth Man of the Year – Anthony Mason
1996-97 Sixth Man of the Year – John Starks
1999-00 All Star – Allan Houston
2000-01 All Star – Allan Houston
2000-01 All Star – Latrell Sprewell
In 14 playoff seasons Ewing played with 6 All Stars and 2 top bench players. Thats it! In 88-89 Mark Jackson was a second year player and the Knicks were not contenders. In 99-00, and 00-01, Sprewell and Houston were the stars of the team and Ewing was a third banana at the end of his career. The only other year with an All Star teammate was 93-94, the year they came within a John Starks 3-pointer from winning it all. During this era, Jordan had Pippen for all six of his titles (and of course he’s Jordan). Karl Malone (the second all time leading scorer in NBA history) and John Stockton (the NBA’s all time leader in assists and steals) played together every year of the run. Barkley played with Dr. J, Moses Malone, Hersey Hawkins, Kevin Johnson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Scottie Pippen, Clyde Drexler and more over his career and
never won a championship. David Robinson didn’t win until his twilight years when he got Tim Duncan. Shaq didn’t win until he got Kobe Bryant. Both top 15 all time players. Who was Ewing’s best teammate when he was at the top of his game from 85-97? John Starks? Charles Oakley? He never played with a first, second or third team all NBA player and won 17 playoff rounds. Frankly its remarkable. And when I think about this and compare it to the Carmelo Anthony led Knicks that failed to sniff 8th seed in a weakened East for four years, its hard to even comprehend how this warrior and consummate performer and winner was so under-appreciated. If Carmelo Anthony is a Hall of Famer, what does that make Patrick Ewing?
|Another 3-1 week with the only loss coming in a game that Porzingis (get well VERY soon) missed. The Knicks also came back from double digits to win in back to back games for the first time in franchise history, which is a lot more fun than the fake comebacks we saw in previous years.|
|Rank||Player||Comments||Last weeks Rank|
|1||Porzingis, Kristaps||Against the Pacers Porzingis had 40 points on 24 shot attempts with 8 rebounds and 6 blocks. A stat line Melo wouldn’t have even in the wettest of dreams.||1|
|2||Kanter, Enes||Kanter looks like he’s improving on defense. He’s got a long way to go but he looks like he’s putting in effort and getting some stops. Very good news for the Knicks.||2|
|3||Hardaway Jr., Tim||With Porzingis out Timmy stepped up with a nice 26 and 11 game. He’s been very inconsistent with his shot but at least he’s contributing in other ways. He’s more than doubling his average in assists, rebounds, and steals than he did his first time with the Knicks.||8|
|4||Ntilikina, Frank||Over the last 3 games Frank is averaging 8 assists per game while playing some of the best defense on the team. He’s only 19. Be excited.||5|
|5||O’Quinn, Kyle||I think it’s fair to say KOQ has one of the best contracts in the league.||4|
|6||McDermott, Doug||McDermott felt like a throw in with the Melo trade, but he’s now a key part of the Knicks bench.||7|
|7||Lee, Courtney||Lee hasn’t been bad this week, but a number of his teammates have played better.||3|
|8||Thomas, Lance||Lance had a +/- of +58 in over the last 4 games. Impressive but not quite ready for a Lance apology episode yet.||13|
|9||Jack, Jarrett||Just goes to show how this team is playing right now. Jack had a decent week and is still ranked 9th.||6|
|10||Dotson, Damyean||I think we’ll see more Dotson when coach realizes that the Beasley experiment isn’t working.||9|
|11||Beasley, Michael||With Porzingis out it was time for Beasley to step up and show what he’s got. Except that didn’t happen.||11|
|12||Baker, Ron||I was pretty high on Baker a few weeks ago and now I can’t see where he gets minutes.||12|
|13||Hernangomez, Willy||In the limited time we’ve seen Willy it looks like he does the same things as O’Quinn only worse.||10|
|14||Sessions, Ramon||At this point Ramon’s official position is injury insurance.||14|
|15||Kuzminskas, Mindaugas||The Knicks are looking to trade Kuz. Probably should have started that process a few games ago. Everyone knows he’s getting waived by the end of the weekend to make room for Noah.||15|
|16||Noah, Joakim||I mentioned above KOQ might have the best contract in the league. If you don’t count Chandler Parsons the Knicks might have the best and the worst contract on their roster.||16|