What Are the Odds the Knicks Make the Playoffs Under Thibodeau?

The Knicks have officially hired Tom Thibodeau as their head coach. He got a 5 year deal, but this is the Knicks so lets be realistic and say he’ll be coach for at least the next two years. The Knicks will also most likely be getting Mike Woodson as their assistant coach. He happened to be the coach the last time the Knicks made the playoffs. That got me thinking, what are the odds the Knicks make the playoffs under Tom Thibodeau?

First lets take a look at what happened last year. The Knicks entered the 2019-20 season with +575 odds, on average, to reach the postseason. They finished the abbreviated regular season with the fourth-worst point differential in the league and the lowest ELO rating at FiveThirtyEight.  There is every reason to expect NY’s odds to make the 2021 playoffs to open at roughly the same number, i.e. in the +550 to +600 range. That would mean oddsmakers are giving them about a 12-15% chance. Once the current season ends in a few months, there should be early odds available for next season. The NBA section at Sports Betting Dime should have updated content by then so you’ll be able to check on the 2020-21 season.

Of course those odds were with Hornacek as coach and the Knicks now have a real actual basketball coaching staff. Now that the Knicks have the coach settled it’s time to look at the roster. It looks like Payton and Portis are gone. Payton was the Knicks best (only?) point guard last season. This means the Knicks point guard rotation will probably look something like whatever rookie they draft, Smith Jr., and Frank. Unless that draft pick is immediately good this can get messy. Of course the Knicks will have a ton of cap space if they don’t pick up a few team options but there doesn’t seem to be a quick fix on the market currently.

For arguments sake lets say everything works out, the draft pick is great, Frank, Knox, and Robinson all take a leap, and they find a free agent that makes them a little better. The next question is; is there room for the Knicks in the playoff picture? Milwaukee, Toronto, Boston, Philly, Miami and Indiana are virtual locks, and the Nets will most likely be there too. That means the Knicks would have to pass Charlotte, Washington, Orlando, and Chicago while staying ahead of Detroit and Atlanta who both will probably be better than last season.  A lot can change between now and December but as of now I’d say a 12-15% chance at making the playoffs seems a little high.

A STATISTICAL LOOK AT WHAT THE PAST HAS TO SAY ABOUT THE FUTURE’S ALL STARS

A STATISTICAL LOOK AT WHAT THE PAST HAS TO SAY ABOUT THE FUTURE’S ALL STARS

Written By: Torsten Maier (August 7, 2017)

Inevitably, a handful of tomorrow’s All-Stars will have been picked in the recent
2017 NBA Draft. In this article, we’ll discuss a few interesting statistics that will shine
some light on how many All Stars will come from this draft and where in the draft they
will have been picked from.

THE METHOD

It’s important to note that the analysis for this article was done for 49 first rounds
(1965 – 2013). 1965 was chosen based on access to historical data. 2013 was chosen
as the cut-off year because players drafted after this time have not had enough time to
accumulate at least one All Star appearance. The player list and pick information from
these drafts were cross referenced with a historical list of All-Stars to match each All
Star with their draft selection. Then, the percentage of players who became All Stars for each draft pick was calculated by dividing the number of All Stars selected with that
pick by the total number of players selected with that pick (49, one for each year).

THE RESULT

For those who read the last page of a book first, this is for you. The graph below is the final product of the analysis. The chart shows the percentage of draft selections for each pick with at least one All Star appearance. Now let’s look at what this graph can teach us.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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